Tech Steps Back Before CPI
A flat market hid a clear rotation: money left tech for industrials and real estate, two days before September inflation.
The Signal
The broad market closed flat on Columbus Day, with blue chips up and the Nasdaq down. More stocks saw money flowing out than in, but far more names are making higher lows than new lows. Over the past week, early bullish turns cluster in industrials and real estate, and early bearish turns cluster in technology.
The Noise
A flat close reads like a quiet day. It was not: tech gave ground while older-economy names gained, with September CPI due Wednesday and long-term yields near multi-decade highs. We found no reliable news explaining the session, so we are not naming a cause.
Multi-Signal Confluence
Snap-on (SNA): the cleanest reversal in the scan, a turn back up beneath its long-term trend with improving flow on a higher low. About 18 times earnings, slow steady growth. Reports around Oct 22 (unconfirmed), so it carries event risk.
Edwards Lifesciences (EW): flow turned up on a higher low, a historically reliable pattern, but the bigger trend still points down. Growth near 15%, rich at about 50 times earnings. New FDA pediatric valve approval; reports Nov 4.
NetApp (NTAP): the counterpart. Up about 150% in six months and very overbought; a new high came without money flow behind it. Well above the model's fair value. Avoid chasing it.
Week Ahead
Existing home sales Tuesday. September CPI Wednesday, with a hot headline and tame core expected; rate-sensitive real estate and utilities are most exposed. PPI and retail sales Thursday morning, and Fed Chair Warsh speaks Thursday evening.