Relief Bounce, Rotation Holds
A broad relief bounce led by blue chips, but money is still rotating out of tech and into industrials, real estate and staples.
The Signal
All three major indexes rose after two down days, with the Dow leading and volatility easing. Under the surface, money flow still leans to selling by close to two to one, and over the past week accumulation shows up in industrials, real estate and staples while distribution sits in technology. No top-tier setups today.
The Noise
The headline says the dip is over. We found no reliable explanation for the bounce, and the data says one up day does not change the direction of money, which is still leaving the tech trade.
Multi-Signal Confluence
Valero Energy: a refiner riding strong margins, trading about 18% above the model's projected fair value while buying pressure stops confirming new highs. Reports October 22. Not one to chase.
Textron: oversold, about 13% below projected fair value, with selling pressure fading on a new low. Only one signal and an unconfirmed report date in late October, so a watch name.
C.H. Robinson: the freight broker shows the same fading-selling pattern after a weak July report, but it still trades above projected fair value. Earnings expected around October 28-29.