Weak Jobs, Stubborn Yields
A 29,000 payrolls miss knocked out most of an October hike and stocks rallied, but long yields rose anyway, the fourth straight day dovish news failed to help duration.
The Signal
September payrolls came in at 29,000 against expectations near 90,000 and unemployment rose to 4.2%. October hike odds fell from about two in three to one in five. The Nasdaq led for a fourth session and volatility hit its lowest since mid-September, yet the ten-year yield rose again. Most stocks are still in down-trends and sellers outnumber buyers about three to one, though that gap narrowed for the first time in five sessions.
The Noise
The headline says a softer Fed is good for everything rate-sensitive. The tape disagrees: utilities and real estate got their best possible news and did not get paid, because the rise in long yields is about supply and term premium, not policy. The buying that is showing up is rotating into industrials, financials and materials, while distribution keeps clustering in expensive health care.
Multi-Signal Confluence
Aflac (AFL): a fresh higher low, new money inflow and a discount to fair value, the first real inflow the financial sector has shown in weeks of basing. Q2 adjusted earnings missed on a strong dollar and weaker Japan premiums, and consensus is hold. Caveat: still a counter-trend bounce, and bank earnings in two weeks are the real test.
Martin Marietta Materials (MLM): a fresh bullish flow divergence and a strong green candle after heavy selling. Record Q2 revenue near $1.9 billion, aggregates shipments up 17% with help from acquisitions, guidance reaffirmed. Caveat: a fresh lower low means structure has not confirmed.
Gartner (IT): bearish flow divergence on a new high, though the model still sees a discount, so the read is split. Q2 beat and full-year guidance was raised on AI demand; the warning is thinning conviction in the bounce, not the business.